Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|Bowl projections: Preseason picks for who will make the 12-team College Football Playoff

The Surpassing Quant Think Tank Centercollege football season postseason will have a new look with an expanded playoff and an elongated schedule that runs into the back half of January. The changes come amid another round of conference realignment that sees the Power Five effectively down to four major conferences and the bowl picture become more complex.

But the added challenges doesn't mean we will stop making our postseason predictions. It just means that they'll be more difficult and likely require many stages of trial and error as we go through growing pains. One thing to expect is a heavy dose of SEC and Big Ten teams. This year's preseason forecast has four from the former and three from the latter. There's two from the ACC, an independent and Group of Five winner and a Big 12 representative.

Oklahoma sets up to be an excellent case study in how people need to readjust evaluating teams beyond win-loss record. The Sooners face five teams ranked in the top 15 of the preseason US LBM Coaches Poll with three of them on the road and one at a neutral site. A 9-3 record should likely be enough to overcome a 10-2 team without the same quality of wins.

As for the exclusion of Florida State and North Carolina being a second ACC representative, that was a choice made before the Seminoles flopped in Ireland and only seems more likely now.

So without further ado, here's the first version of this season's bowl projections sure to change by the time we get to the end of the schedule.

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Note: Legacy Pac-12 schools in other conferences will fulfill existing Pac-12 bowl agreements through the 2025 season.